抖音运营市场增长面临结构性挑战，竞争格局深度重构

一、存量市场竞争白热化，新增长点培育艰难

1、 The competition in the existing market is intensifying, and it is difficult to cultivate new growth points

下沉市场增长动能减弱

Weakening growth momentum in the sinking market

最新数据显示，抖音在下沉市场的用户覆盖率已达高位，三线及以下城市用户渗透率突破58%大关。然而，用户增速呈现明显放缓趋势，2025年同比增幅仅为12.3%，较往年显著回落。尤其值得注意的是，县域市场呈现"注意力分散化"特征，用户平均同时使用3.2个短视频平台。为维持市场地位，抖音虽推出"百县千品"等本土化运营策略，但获客成本在两年间近乎翻倍，从18元攀升至35元。

The latest data shows that the user coverage rate of Tiktok in the sinking market has reached a high level, and the user penetration rate in the third tier and lower cities has exceeded 58%. However, the user growth rate has shown a clear slowing trend, with a year-on-year increase of only 12.3% in 2025, a significant decline from previous years. Of particular note is that the county-level market exhibits a "dispersed attention" feature, with users using an average of 3.2 short video platforms simultaneously. In order to maintain its market position, Tiktok launched localization operation strategies such as "100 counties and 1000 products", but the cost of customer acquisition nearly doubled in two years, from 18 yuan to 35 yuan.

银发群体争夺战加剧

The battle for silver haired population intensifies

中老年用户群体虽规模可观（50岁以上用户达1.57亿），但竞争态势严峻。微信视频号凭借社交关系链优势，在该年龄段实现23%的使用时长增长，其"银发课堂"等特色功能显著提升用户粘性。相较之下，抖音的适老化改造（如语音交互优化）效果有限，中老年用户日均使用时长1.2小时，低于平台平均水平。

Although the scale of the middle-aged and elderly user group is considerable (with 157 million users aged 50 and above), the competitive situation is severe. WeChat video accounts have achieved a 23% increase in usage time in this age group with the advantage of social relationship chains, and their unique features such as "Silver Hair Classroom" have significantly increased user stickiness. In contrast, Tiktok's aging modification (such as voice interaction optimization) has limited effect. The average daily use time of middle-aged and elderly users is 1.2 hours, lower than the average level of the platform.

全球化协同效应式微

The synergy effect of globalization is diminishing

虽然TikTok在海外市场下载量增长显著，但对国内业务的带动作用持续减弱。2025年第一季度数据显示，海外内容在国内的播放量增速大幅放缓至17%，远不及2023年的爆发式增长。同时，国际业务面临的政策合规成本持续增加，制约了全球化战略的实施效果。

Although TikTok's download volume has grown significantly in overseas markets, its driving effect on domestic business continues to weaken. According to data from the first quarter of 2025, the growth rate of overseas content playback in China has significantly slowed down to 17%, far from the explosive growth in 2023. At the same time, the policy compliance costs faced by international businesses continue to increase, which constrains the implementation effectiveness of globalization strategies.

二、行业竞争格局深刻变革，流量争夺进入新阶段

2、 The industry competition landscape is undergoing profound changes, and the competition for traffic has entered a new stage

社交生态带来全新挑战

Social ecology brings new challenges

微信视频号依托其强大的社交网络，用户规模突破5亿大关。其独特的"社交裂变+智能推荐"双轮驱动模式，使得内容传播深度达到3.2个层级，显著高于行业平均水平。实际测试表明，相同内容在视频号平台的完播率优势达19个百分点，这对传统中心化流量分发模式构成实质性挑战。

Relying on its powerful social network, WeChat Video has surpassed the user base of 500 million. Its unique "social fission+intelligent recommendation" dual wheel driving mode enables content dissemination depth to reach 3.2 levels, significantly higher than the industry average. Actual testing has shown that the completion rate advantage of the same content on video platforms is 19 percentage points, which poses a substantial challenge to the traditional centralized traffic distribution model.




垂直平台精准突围

Precise breakthrough of vertical platform

专业内容平台通过差异化竞争实现快速增长。B站聚焦知识类内容生态，成功吸引3000万高消费力用户群体，其付费内容转化率显著领先。小红书则凭借AI赋能的新型购物体验，在时尚品类实现113%的GMV增长，成功分流抖音核心用户群。

Professional content platforms achieve rapid growth through differentiated competition. Bilibili focuses on the knowledge-based content ecosystem and has successfully attracted 30 million high spending users, with a significantly leading conversion rate for paid content. Xiaohongshu has achieved 113% GMV growth in fashion category by virtue of AI enabled new shopping experience, and successfully diverted the core user group of Tiktok.

本地服务竞争胶着

Local service competition is deadlocked

尽管抖音生活服务覆盖商家数量可观，但在实际运营效率上仍存差距。商家反馈显示，抖音订单的履约成本较竞品高出18%，且因配送问题导致的用户差评率居高不下，这在一定程度上制约了业务发展。

Although Tiktok Life Service covers a large number of businesses, there is still a gap in actual operation efficiency. Business feedback shows that the fulfillment cost of Tiktok orders is 18% higher than that of competing products, and the user's negative rating rate caused by distribution problems remains high, which to some extent restricts business development.

三、内容创新遭遇瓶颈，生态健康度面临考验

3、 Content innovation encounters bottlenecks, putting ecological health to the test

同质化困局凸显

The dilemma of homogenization is highlighted

平台内容结构失衡问题持续，娱乐类内容占比仍超六成。用户对重复性内容的耐受度明显下降，低互动内容占比两年间增长13个百分点。值得注意的是，虽然原创内容的初始流量表现不佳，但其用户留存优势显著，反映出内容质量与短期流量之间的矛盾。

The problem of imbalanced platform content structure persists, with entertainment content still accounting for over 60%. The tolerance of users to repetitive content has significantly decreased, and the proportion of low interactive content has increased by 13 percentage points over the past two years. It is worth noting that although the initial traffic performance of original content is poor, its user retention advantage is significant, reflecting the contradiction between content quality and short-term traffic.

创作者生态承压

The pressure on the creator ecosystem

中小创作者生存环境日趋严峻，月收入中位数维持在较低水平。日益严格的内容审核和算法调整，使得新创作者的成长难度加大，创作者流失率呈现上升趋势。

The living environment for small and medium-sized creators is becoming increasingly severe, and the median monthly income remains at a low level. The increasingly strict content review and algorithm adjustments have made it more difficult for new creators to grow, and the creator churn rate is showing an upward trend.

技术应用的双面性

The duality of technology application

虽然AI工具大幅提升了内容生产效率，但过度依赖技术也带来新的挑战。数据显示，AI生成内容的用户接受度明显低于真人创作，这为平台的内容质量管控提出了新的课题。

Although AI tools have greatly improved content production efficiency, excessive reliance on technology also brings new challenges. The data shows that the user acceptance of AI generated content is significantly lower than that of human created content, which poses a new challenge for the platform's content quality control.

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